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email: tkande@iastate.edu Iowa State University Research Main research goals
Research methods
Research plan What data are needed Anticipated findings or significance of work |
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email: brucea@bu.edu Bruce T. Anderson is an Associate Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at Boston University. He serves as a Research Consultant for the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) project and heads the Experimental Center for Remote Observations of Production (ECROP). He has also served as the Associate Chair for the Department. He has been a Royal Society Visiting Fellow, a National Research Council Fellow and a NOAA Visiting Scientist Fellow. His research interests include: Regional impacts of climate variability; Large-scale and regional atmospheric dynamics and hydrology; Coupled ocean-atmosphere modes of variability; and Historic and future climate trends within observations and climate-simulation models. He received his Ph.D. from Scripps Institution of Oceanography in 1998 and graduated with a B.S. in Physics from University of California, Santa Barbara in 1994. Research We plan on using the NARCCAP data to help identify and analyze non-linear behavior in the time evolution of climate parameters derived from global and regional climate change predictions. While many climate parameters — such as global and regional temperatures- show a quasi-linear response to changes in radiative forcing associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, other parameters — such as water availability, heat indices and extreme event occurrences — may behave in more complex ways. We have developed a method for using spatio-temporal data from global and regional climate forecasts to identify whether they show non-linear time evolutions. These non-linear evolutions can include increasing/decreasing sensitivity with time, as well as "turning" points in which initial responses differ in both sign and magnitude from longer-term responses. Preliminary results from regional climate forecasts for the Northeastern US, as well as from global climate forecasts for the Western US, indicate a strong non-linear response in soil moisture, with initial increases in both regions, followed by substantial drops once CO2 concentrations reach twice pre-industrial levels. This type of information can subsequently be used for local and region mitigation and adaptation activities in response to global climate change. We will also use the NARCCAP data to further investigate physical and socio-economic impacts that arise from regional climate variations resulting from increased greenhouse gas concentrations over the next century. Previous results have focused upon the summertime climate for the Northeastern US. In this region, overall summertime precipitation totals are expected to increase over the northern and southern portions of the domain but decrease across the central portions; heavy-rainfall events are expected to increase across almost the entire domain, both with respect to frequency as well as intensity. Increased evaporation combined with increased temperatures are also expected to significantly increase the daily maximum heat index for the region; in addition, the number of days with extremely high heat-index values are expected to increase by approximately 450% and for certain regions days with heat index values that reach 32.2°C (90°F) — the level of "extreme caution" —could occur approximately 40-50% of the time during summer. Future research will focus on refining these results using data derived from the NARCCAP. In addition, future work will examine similar hydrologic variations over the southwestern U.S., which is expected to be strongly and imminently impacted by anthropogenic-induced climate change. In these regions, the combination of warmer regional temperatures, recurrent drought, and increasing populations all point to future conflicts among water users. |
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email: christopher.j.anderson@noaa.gov Christopher J. Anderson is Lead Mesoscale Modeler at the NOAA/ESRL/GSD in Boulder, CO. For the past 2 years, his primary task has been to manage all weather forecast demonstration projects within ESRL/GSD/FAB. These typically include forecasts of 1-day to 3-day lead time. An effort has been established to develop regional climate modeling techniques for assessments of extremes in precipitation. Also, connections have been established with the Western Water Assessment. Prior to Christophers work at NOAA/ESRL, he was employed at Iowa State University where he contributed to the Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations and the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project. Research
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email: anyah@ucar.edu Richard Anyah is a Research Associate in the Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University and also currently a Visiting Scientist at NCAR, in MMM Division under the UCAR-Africa Initiative. He got his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science in Summer, 2005 from North Carolina State University under the direction of Prof. Fredrick Semazzi. He then moved to Rutgers University in Fall, 2005 as a Postdoctoral Research Associate in the Department of Environmental Science and then became a Research Associate Scientist from Fall, 2006 the position he still holds to date. Currently he is also organizing a Regional Climate Modeling Inter-comparison Project for the Greater Horn of Africa (AFRMIP), which is partially funded by NSF. Research Richard's primary research focus has been on understanding land surface-atmospheric interactions and feedbacks and the coupled climate variability of the two intimately connected systems. In particular, he has been interested in studying the physical and dynamical mechanisms and role large inland freshwater lakes and high mountains plays on Eastern Africa Climate variability and change. He has used regional climate models as the primary investigative tool over the past several years. At Rutgers he has also been in a broad interdisciplinary collaboration with a diverse group of scientists to study the impact of groundwater reservoir (water table dynamics) on the simulated hydroclimatic variability over North America Therefore, his interests on NARCCAP are twofold:
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email: bbaker@tnc.org Barry Baker, Ph.D. is currently working as ecosystem scientist for The Nature Conservancy's Climate Change Team. He received his doctorate from Colorado State University in 1991 where his research focused on the effects of climate change on grassland/livestock ecosystems. More recently he has been using climate and dynamic vegetation models to identify potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems in northwestern Yunnan China. In addition he is working with several universities, and national laboratories in the US to conduct regional-scale climate change vulnerability and impact analyses and incorporating results into conservation planning. His research interests include bioclimatology, biogeography, and terrestrial ecosystem modeling for predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity especially in grassland and high altitude ecosystems. Research Barry is collaborating with several vegetation modelling groups (SAGE, LPJ, MC1, and Century) to simulate impacts of climate change on terrestrial systems. He will be using the data provided by the NARCCAP as climate forcings for the various vegetation models. Results will be used to help guide conservation strategies and evaluate ecosystem processes. |
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email: rdbeyer@iastate.edu Iowa State University Research Main Research Goals: Compare the dew formation and dissipation data output by RCMs against observational data to investigate end-user usefulness-especially with regard to agriculture and food security. Research Methods: Conduct comparative studies between RCM output and observational data to assess the temporal and spatial precision and accuracy of RCMs with regard to dew formation and dissipation. Furthermore, this information will permit deeper investigation of RCM to observational disparities such that RCM improvements will become beneficial to the end-user. Research Plan:
Data Needed: All biogeophysical variables that affect the formation and dissipation of dew. Anticipated Findings or Significance: This research will investigate RCMs' treatment of dew formation and dissipation with the intention to improve RCM projections and data products for end-user application-in this particular case, agriculture. |
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email: bronaugh@uvic.ca
I do data analysis, acquisition, management, and programming for the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. Research PCIC is interested in regional analysis of impacts and is interested in using RCM results for illustrative purposes as well as using the results to drive further statistical downscaling or hydrological and other impacts models. |
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email: melissa.bukovsky@noaa.gov Melissa Bukovsky is currently working on a Ph.D. in Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma under the guidance of Dr. David Karoly. She finished a M.S. in meteorology at OU in 2004. A paper based on her Master's work was published in Weather and Forecasting in June 2006 and was entitled "Bowing convective systems in a popular operational model: Are they for real?" Before moving to Norman, OK, Melissa lived in the Chicago area where she completed a B.S. in meteorology at Northern Illinois University in 2002 after receiving an Associate in Science from the College of DuPage. Her current research is focused on precipitation in climate models. Specifically, Melissa is looking at the sensitivity of precipitation to convective parameterization and model resolution, potential future changes in regional precipitation in different climate change scenarios, and the implication of precipitation changes in surface hydrology. Research The NARCCAP project and my current area of research are very closely related, so I plan to use NARCCAP data to expand my work. Since I am currently downscaling output from the CCSM using the WRF to look at the impact of climate change on warm-season precipitation on sub-continental scales, I would like to analyze my data alongside that which is produced by NARCCAP. I will be focusing on summertime convection: its intensity, distribution, frequency, diurnal cycle, etc. Assuming that we will be using different WRF setups, it will likely allow me to expand my sensitivity study on the impact of parameterization choice as well. NARCCAP data may also be used in the distributed hydrologic model I plan to run using my downscaled data. Due to computational limitations, I will only be downscaling warm-season months. Provided that it is available in time, NARCCAP data would allow me to run the hydrologic model for full years, which would be more appropriate in the basin I am studying (the upper Arkansas). I am also currently working on a side-project with two other graduate students from two different departments where we are statistically downscaling climate model output to look at the impact of climate change on species propagation in two different, biologically diverse regions of the world. This study could also be expanded to make use of the NARCCAP output, as it would certainly remove some of the uncertainties created by the degree to which we are currently downscaling model output that may not be capturing 20th century precipitation realistically to start. |
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email: alex.cannon@ec.gc.ca
University of British Columbia - Climate Prediction Group Research My primary interest is in development of multisite, multivariate statistical downscaling algorithms, and dynamical-statistical downscaling is on the radar. |
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email: greg.carbone@sc.edu Greg Carbone is Associate Professor of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA. His research interests center on climate variability and change and impacts on agriculture and water resources. Some of his recent research papers on these topics have appeared in Agronomy Journal, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Climatic Change, Integrated Assessment, Journal of Climate, and Journal of the American Water Resources Association. He is a principal investigator for the Carolinas Integrated Science and Assessment group, part of the NOAA-RISA program. He holds a B.A. from Clark University, an M.A. from the University of Kansas, and a Ph. D from the University of Wisconsin. Research The Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments group is partnering with Dr. Larry Band at the University North Carolina to examine the impacts of climate variability and change on stream flow and water quality in the Carolinas. The project reflects our collective effort to understand the hydroclimatology of large watersheds in the Carolinas, and to develop related decision support tools for resource managers in these watersheds. The goals of this specific venture include: statistical evaluation of general circulation model (GCM) and regional climate model (RCM) output for the Carolinas, measurement of hydrologic model sensitivity to a suite of meteorological inputs, and comparison of output generated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) models. |
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email: indrani@gi.alaska.edu Post Doctoral Fellow Research Study of the precipitation patterns using orographic precipitation model Indrani Das, Craig Lingle, Chris Larsen, Regine Hock Aim of the project: To obtain orographic precipitation patterns over a 1 km/1 km grid over the glaciers in Alaska using LT Model. Description of the project: It is important to address the problem of the rate the glaciers are thinning and what is their contribution to the rise in sea level. Estimation of volume changes by laser altimeters provides a means to estimate the amount of glacial wastage by calculating its mass balance. Also the changing climate is changing the precipitation patterns over the globe. At places like Mt. Logan, the precipitation is actually increasing leading to a positive mass balance in those areas. I am currently working as a Post Doctoral fellow using laser altimetry data to estimate volume changes for the glaciers in Alaska. I am also using a orographic precipitation model which will simulate the precipitation patterns over high elevations where we have no altimetry data and will help us better address the problem of extrapolation of volume changes to unmeasured areas. My research will also help to understand the coupling of atmosphere and the glaciers, whether the changing climate is also increasing the amount of precipitation above certain elevations and how fast are the glaciers thinning. Whether climate influences have increased over large glaciers having high accumulation areas? Large volumes of altimeter data are available in our group, which I intend to use to study the volume changes of the glaciers and their contribution to rise in sea level. For this I require the meteorological parameters like wind direction, speed, Specific Humidity, Temperature at the highest resolution available (0.5 degrees) from 1957 to the current date available. Results expected: To develop a precipitation map over the entire state of Alaska from 1957 to the current available date and understand the climate effects at higher elevation where we have no altimeter data. It will help us to extrapolate our results to the highest elevations and give a more accurate estimation of the contribution of Alaskan glaciers to sea level rise. |
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email: davidmz@atmosfera.unam.mx I am a student of atmospheric sciences at the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). The main research goal of my thesis is evaluate the most probable future conditions of temperature and precipitation under climate change scenarios for Mexico, also determining characteristics of a statistical downscaling compared to dynamical. Research It is done a statistical downscaling to most of the participating models in the IPCC AR4 in the SRESA2, SRESA1B, SRESB1 and COMMITTED scenarios, although our interest is focus only in models simulating good enough the observed trend. The statistical downscaling was made by principal components regression using the CRU data base as a predictand field. It was used the XX century control run to calibrate the transfer functions in the period 1901-1970, and 1971-1999 as independent sample. Comparing the NARCCAP output data of dynamical regional climate models with our data base we'll determine some of the main share features, advantages and disadvantages of a statistical downscaling against dynamical, besides the enormous advantage of cheap computational and human requirements. The main findings are that a statistical downscaling is good enough compared to dynamical to assess regional scenarios. |
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email: Yonas.Dibike@ec.gc.ca
Physical Scientist, Hydro-Climate Analysis & Impact Studies Research I am a researcher at the water & Climate Impact Research Centre (W-CIRC) at the University of Victoria in BC, Canada and I work with Prof. Terry Prowse who is the director of the institute. Our research at the W-CIRC focuses on hydrologic and ecological impacts of atmospheric change and variability. Specific examples of W-CIRC research include climate impacts on floods and droughts, groundwater systems, river and lake ice, forest hydrology, lake heat and energy budgets of lakes, alpine and reservoir water supplies, and aquatic ecology. Current W-CIRC research includes:
In most cases, we would like to use simulation outputs from different RCMs driven by different GCMs and emission scenarios to simulate the range of possible hydrologic and ecological impacts and the uncertainties associated with them. Access to the NARCCAP data base will help us do our impact research more effectively and greatly enhance our ability to produce a comprehensive impact analysis for the various research project we are undertaking at our research centre. |
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email: ZFarooqui@eng.tamuk.edu Research Overview There has been very little focus so far on the effect of climate variability on regional and urban ozone quality in the South Texas region. Rising temperatures due to climate change can substantially enhance ozone exceedances if the new standards are implemented. Emissions control policies in these parts are currently implemented by assuming the constancy of climate. The air quality modeling performed in this research study also addresses the significance of climate change on spatial and temporal responses in modeled peak surface 8 hour ozone concentrations and ozone exceedances due to potential temperature perturbations. Overall the primary issues motivating the research study is to enhance the awareness of policy makers regarding the impact of climate change on surface 8 hr ozone concentrations so that future emission control policies for the South Texas region may be developed factoring the impact due to climate change. Key knowledge gaps addressed by the project Scope of the work Recent Accomplishments Impact of perturbed temperatures Broader perspectives of this research and benefit to the nation
In addition to climate change, land use changes and increasing anthropogenic emissions, which are products of expanding urbanization, will add to temperature amplifications (Civerolo et al. 2007). They will play an important role in determining the future air quality. The effects of increasing urbanization also needs to be factored in along with climate change to develop emission control strategies across different regions. The present study did not model the effects of increasing urbanization and focused on climate change alone. The modeling results presented here despite being limited by uncertainties provides a first insight on how to develop effective emission control stratgies in case of climatic perturbations over South and Central Texas. This modeling study can serve as a paradigm at the national level. References
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email: philippe.gachon@mail.mcgill.ca Research Scientist – Adaptation and Impacts Research Division Affiliations
Research Current Research topic:
Main interests related to current project: Funded project by the National Sciences and Engineering Research Council, (NSERC, Canada) in which both dynamical downscaling model (RCMs) and statistical downscaling tool (multisite) will be used to develop probabilistic assessment of regional changes in climate variability and extremes over Canada, in collaboration with ENSEMBLES European (RT2B/RT3 group) & US NARCCAP. Team members (Canadian and partners) : Pr. VTV Nguyen (McGill), P. Gachon & X. Zhang (EC), Prs R. Laprise & C. Jones (UQAM), Prs TBMJ Ouarda & A. St-Hilaire (INRS-ÉTÉ), Pr. W. Hsieh (UBC), C. Goodess (CRU, UK), L. Mearns (NCAR, US), J. Christensen (DMI, Danemark) & G. Flato (CCCma, Canada). Use of NARCCAP data and main objectives related to our current projects: The main objectives and the current applications of RCMs simulations will be:
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email: gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu Dr. Garfin is a co-investigator on the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project. His CLIMAS work includes identifying climate services useful to assisting stakeholders mitigate, cope with, and adapt to climate-related risks. He is trained as a climatologist, dendroclimatologist, and geographer. His research interests include climate change, climate variability, and drought, and the effective delivery of climate science to decision makers. Much of his recent effort has been devoted to scientist-stakeholder processes that inform risk management and prepare for drought and adaptation to climate changes. Dr. Garfin is a contributor to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3. From 2003-2007, he served as co-chair of Arizona's drought monitoring technical committee. In 2004, he served as a member of the integrated team for the development of a National Integrated Drought Information System. He is also a climate science co-chair for the Arizona Water Institute. Research I am representating three projects with interests in using NARCCAP data: the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, the University of Arizona Institute for the Study of Planet Earth (ISPE), and a National Institute for Climate Change Research (NICCR) project on future vegetation changes in the Colorado Plateau. My CLIMAS and ISPE colleagues propose to use NARCCAP data in the following ways:
The NICCR project specifically requires fine spatial-scale data on projected temperature (minimum and maximum), precipitation, humidity, and evapotranspiration. These parameters will be input to a species-specific vegetation model, in order to project future changes in plant species range. |
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email: Gilliland.Alice@epamail.epa.gov Alice Gilliland, Ph.D. Research Main research goals: We are interested in future climate-related changes in atmospheric wet deposition of nutrients. We have some air quality and atmospheric deposition modeling results that rely on a regional downscaling scenario developed by Dr. Ruby Leung (see Leung and Gustafson, 2005; Gustafson and Leung, 2007). We would like to look at a range of precipitation pattern changes (current to future under A1B and A2 scenarios) to consider how different the wet deposition estimates of nutrients might be with different regional climate scenarios. Research methods and plan: Our current regional-scale air quality modeling results include estimates of wet deposition of aerosol species, based on the regional downscaled results I mentioned above. Using a statistical model of wet deposition based on precipitation volume, we plan to estimate how different the model predicted deposition amounts would vary based on the NARCCAP precipitation fields. What data are needed: We primarily just need the precipitation fields from the NARCCAP results. Anticipated findings or significance of work: We hope to get a better feeling for how different the wet removal of air pollutants may be with different downscaled regional climate results and different IPCC scenarios. |
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email: greenmarkb@gmail.com Water Systems Analysis Group Research Mark researches the role of the hydrologic cycle in biogeochemical cycling. He is am particularly interested in how water pathways through the hydrologic cycle influence the ecological stoichiometry of nutrients in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. His educational background spans a biology undergraduate degree (Minnesota State U., Mankato), hydrology M.S. degree (U. of Nevada, Reno), and a Ph.D. in Water Resources Science (U. of Minnesota). Mark is currently a post-doc working on a hydrologic synthesis project supported by NSF and the Consortium of Universities Allied in the Hydrologic Sciences, Inc. (CUAHSI) and hosted at the University of New Hampshire. We are addressing human-induced changes of the hydrologic cycle in the Northeast U.S. over the period 1600 to 2100, which we term "the 500-year challenge". This 500-year challenge will be addressed using regional Earth system models, large basin watershed models, small-scale virtual watersheds, and hydro-system indicators. As synthesis, this project will rely solely on existing information and well-established data sets. NARCCAP will likely be a source of information that will be incorporated into our hydrologic synthesis project. More specifically, we see NARCCAP as a source of information to run future scenarios for the Northeast U.S. with our Earth system and large basin models. Beyond our synthesis project, other members of the Water Systems Analysis group are active in modeling the hydrology and nitrogen biogeochemistry in basin of the Northeast U.S. NARCCAP products will be central in simulating future changes to the hydrology and nitrogen biogeochemistry of the New England region. |
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email: ahanna@unc.edu Director, Center for Environmental Modeling for Policy Development Research Title: Effects of Climate Change on Human Health: Current and Future Impacts Description: In this project we examine how climatic variations and the corresponding air quality conditions may aggravate heat- and cold-related morbidity among adults and vulnerable populations: in particular, the poor, the aging and children. We will demonstrate our analysis in the state of North Carolina. North Carolina displays substantial variability in weather (mountains to seaboard), population density (rural versus urban/suburban), and regional patterns of land use (urban/suburban versus forest versus agricultural). Objectives/Hypothesis: The overall goal of the proposed research project is to define more precisely the interrelationships among (a) changes in climate and meteorological conditions, (b) air pollution, and (c) heat- and cold-related morbidity severe enough to warrant clinical contact. A secondary goal is to evaluate heat-related morbidity in a vulnerable population: children and adults under economic disadvantage. We propose a novel approach that views climate trends and the associated weather in terms of eight identified air-mass/weather types. We hypothesize that such air masses and the corresponding air quality conditions will have different health impacts on humans, which can be quantified based on statistical analyses of the correlates among the meteorological, climate, air quality, and health data. Approach: Our work will consist of the following steps: (1) Characterize weather patterns and circulation types over the state of North Carolina; (2) examine temporal and regional variability in meteorological and climatological patterns of the state of North Carolina to identify abnorm Data Needed: Hourly surface meteorological data (temperature, winds, pressure, etc.) for one or two future years (year 2040 or after) Expected Results: We anticipate that the characteristics of the climate . air pollution relationship across North Carolina over time will be generalizable throughout the US, and that our proposed study will yield important insights regarding the impact of climate change and air pollution on heat- and cold-related morbidity, thus advancing our knowledge of the health effects of climate change and their predictability. Findings on applying environmental and climate data to decrease heat- and cold-related morbidity could result in a substantial public health impact, not just in North Carolina but throughout the United States. |
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email: radley.m.horton@gmail.com Radley Horton is an Associate Research Scientist at the Center for Climate Systems Research at Columbia University, working with Cynthia Rosenzweig's Climate Impacts group. He conducted his graduate work with David Rind at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University in New York. His Ph.D. research focused on regional impacts of climate variability and climate change as simulated by Global Climate Models. He has published on topics including polar climate, high-latitude climate variability and change, sea level rise, and adaptation to climate change. He is involved in current (and recent projects) in the New York Region examining impacts of climate change on the water system, transit systems, and Long Island coastal ecosystems. Additional projects include climate change impacts on agriculture in the Southeastern United States and Central America, alternative projections of 21st century sea level rise, and impacts of changing lower boundary conditions on Arctic meteorology. At the Center for Climate Systems Research, he helps conduct regional climate change scenario assessments for stakeholders around the globe. Research The Climate Impacts Group at NASA GISS is interested in NARCCAP output for several potential applications:
Of primary initial interest is the downscaled 20th Century climate scenario, followed by the A1B scenarios in the mid 21st Century. |
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email: inouye@umd.edu Dr. David W. Inouye, Professor Research Main research goals - My work has focused on a long-term study of variation in the phenology and abundance of flowering by about 100 species of wildflowers. I have a 35-year record for these variables from permanent plots at RMBL and am interested in forecasting how they may change in the future. This project is currently supported by funding from NSF. Most of the variation in flowering phenology is explained by variation in snowmelt dates, and for quite a few species there is also a correlation between winter precipitation and abundance of flowering. Research methods - See this paper for an example of how I have used data on snowpack to explain variation in flowering phenology and abundance: Inouye, D. W. 2008. Effects of climate change on phenology, frost damage, and floral abundance of montane wildflowers. Ecology 89(2): 353-362. Research plan - The same paper gives an example of how I use environmental data to explain variation in flowering phenology and abundance. What data are needed - I would be interested in projections of future trends in precipitation (especially as snowfall) and temperature (as it affects snowmelt) for the area around the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (38°57′N, 106°59′W). Anticipated findings or significance of work - To the degree that the future of snowpack and snowmelt can be predicted, I can predict the environmental consequences for flowering by wildflowers, and hence predict how their population biology may be affected. |
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email: victormr@servidor.unam.mx National Autonomous University of Mexico Ph.D from the University of California Los Angeles Currently at the National Autonomoius University of Mexico Research Man interests on dynamics of climate in the Mexico, Central America and Caribbean region, and the use of climate information to reduce vulnerability on various socioeconomic sectors, including adaptation to climate change. As part of the official plans of the Mexican government to respond to the challenge on Climate Change, there is a need to formulate adaptation plans at the state level. This requires downscaling climate change scenarios to the state level, and at times at the basin level, since the water sector is one of those considered as a priority in the adaptation process. Members of the Tropical Meteorology group at the National University of Mexico have explored various venues on how to downscale GCM output and on how to consider the climate statistics to properly manage risk of climate change at the regional level. The most important lines of research include the use of statistical tools to downscale GCM climate change scenarios used for the IPCC AR4. There are two basic developments: 1) the statistical downscaling model, known as SDSM, to construct local climate change scenarios, and 2) the use of the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) developed at the IRI to downscale monthly conditions using GCM output. Results from the CPT have been compared with output from mesoscale models as PRECIS from the Hadley Center and the Earth Simulator from the Meteorological Research Institute for the domain of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. At present, we are coupling a stochastic weather generator to explore changes in extreme events under climate change and compare with observational analyses of trends in severe storms and drought for the last one hundred years in Mexico. |
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email: samij07@hotmail.com GIS Contractor Research Research Goals: Determine the effects of climate change on forest productivity and carbon cycling in Northeastern US Methods: Combine knowledge of current forest types and distribution, geographic variables and future climate scenarios to forecast potential changes in forest ecosystem health and carbon storage capacity Research Plan:
Data needed: Predicted future climate conditions for Northern Great Lakes region Anticipated findings / significance: This research will address the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution, health and carbon storage capacity of Lake States forests and disperse the research process and findings to generate increased ecological understanding via collaboration with regional school programs. |
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email: patrick.marsh@ou.edu Graduate Student University of OklahomaResearch |
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email: mmontero@tlaloc.imta.mx Profession: Atmospheric Physicist
Detailed Tasks Assigned: To perform research in the fields of aerosols (biomass burning), global climate change, atmospheric numerical modeling, and adaptation measurements to climate change. Relevant projects:
Research Jose Luis Perez and myself currently are working in a project for the Mexican Meteorological Service in which we will need to use dynamical downscaling to regionalize scenarios data from the NCAR-CCSM model for all of Mexico. Thus, our interest in your data is based in which you cover some part of Mexico using different coupled GCMs regionalized with different regional models. Thus, one of our key questions is to know what kind of possibility would be that you could cover all of Mexico in NARCCAP future work. Other question is to know more about the downscaling process that you use, and based on that, to know once and for all if we are working in the right direction. |
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email: ldmortsc@fesmail.uwaterloo.ca Senior Impacts and Adaptation Researcher AFFILIATIONS: Adjunct, Geography Department, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo Research
APPLICATIONS OF NARCCAP DATA:
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email: gretchen@atmos.und.edu Gretchen Mullendore is an assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at University of North Dakota. Her research interests include: Mass transport in convection; Regional climatology; Cloud-scale dynamics. She received her Ph.D. from University of Washington in 2003, and B.S. in Geophysics from the University of California, Santa Barbara, in 1998. Research We plan to use the NARCCAP data to examine climate impacts on in the Northern Great Plains region with specific interest in changes in the synoptic regimes and hydrological cycle. We also want to use NARCCAP output to initialize higher resolution WRF runs, focusing on the North Dakota region, to investigate variability across different zones of land-use and terrain. |
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email: tmurdock@uvic.ca Trevor Murdock is Associate Director of the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium in Victoria, BC. For the past 12 years, he has worked on applications of climate research to assist decision-making and planning. Trevor's work has focused on climate scenarios and online mapping tools, downscaling to high resolution, analysis of historical climate data and improvement of seasonal climate predictions. Research |
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email: roglesby2@unl.edu Robert Oglesby is currently (since 2006) a Professor of Climate Modeling in the Department of Geosciences and the School of Natural Resources at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln. Prior to that he was a Senior Research Scientist at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center from 2001-2005, and an Assistant and Associate Professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Purdue University from 1992-2000. He obtained his PhD in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics from Yale University in 1990, working under Prof. Barry Saltzman. Robert has particular research interests in land surface-atmosphere interactions, particularly how soil moisture and snow cover may provide some predictability of precipitation on seasonal and longer time scales. He is also interested in the role of the hydrologic cycle in potential future climate change, especially at regional scales. Robert also using regional models to evaluate the potential climatic effects of land use changes, e.g., a large-scale transition from growing corn to growing switchgrass for biofuels. Research Increasingly, my research group has been using regional climate models. We have particular interests in the US Great Plains, Southeast, and Southwest. The models we primarily use are MM5 and WRF; our research collaborators also use the RSM. My goal for this workshop is not to come in with a specific need, but rather to gain a better understanding of the wide range of models used for NARCCAP, the datasets that have been produced, and how they may assist my group in our ongoing research projects. |
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email: panz@eas.slu.edu
Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Science. St. Louis University. My research focuses on regional climate changes, mesoscale phenomena, land surface processes, and ecosystem modeling. Research The project is to understand and quantify how critical ecosystem structure, functioning, and climate feedbacks in agroecosystems will be affected by climate changes. Carbon dynamics and its change play key roles in maintaining the system health and sustainability under changing climate. The gridded climate change data generated by the global and regional model suite will be used to drive ecosystem models and to evaluate carbon flows among different pools in the agroecosystem. |
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email: jolperez@tlaloc.imta.mx Jose Luis Perez Lopez is a Physicist of the Faculty (Power) of Sciences of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). From 2000 he received his Master Sciences in Atmospheric Physics at the Posgrado of Sciences of the Earth of the UNAM in 2000. Currently he is a student of doctorate in Atmospheric Physics inside the Posgrado of Sciences of the Earth of the UNAM. Since 2001 he is a researcher associated in Hidrometeorología's department of the Mexican Institute of Technology of the Water (IMTA). Jose Luis' thesis works has been on the generation of scenes (stages) of climatic change of rain and temperature for Mexico SRES 92 (1997), and on the simulation of the regional climate in the center of Mexico using the model MM5 (2000). His topics of interest are to study the climatic regional variability of Mexico and the interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean as part of the processes that determine the regional climate. In 2007 initiate together with the Dr. Montero the evaluation of the scenarios of climatic regional change for Mexico applying the algorithm REA of Giorgi and L. Mearns, considering the ensamble models that they took part in 4th report of the IPCC. Jose Luis possesses skills in the processing and analysis of meteorological and climatological information, also in the experimental design of diagnosis, forecast in real time and of sensibility experiments for changes in the landuse in several Mexican regions. Research With the information of NARCCAP we will use them to evaluate the anticipated impacts on the sector of water resources of the north of my country. In October 2007, he was in contact with Seth McGinnis, expressed that his group of work needs to generate the regional scenarios according to NARCCAP's plan, but for the whole region of Mexico, the Caribe and Central America, he defined it as Mesoamerica's domain. For the present Dr. Montero and Jose Luis are initiating the process of obtaining the scenes (stages) A2 and A1B of climatic change for Mesoamerica's region using the models MM5/WRF to a scale of 40 Kms. |
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email: tpfaff@ithaca.edu
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email: shannon.rabideau@gmail.com Research I am a student at Iowa State University, continuing the research that graduated senior Theresa Andersen has done. Borrowing from her information: Main research goals
Research methods
Research plan What data are needed Anticipated findings or significance of work My research differs from Theresa's as I plan to analyze CRCM output wind speed data and then analyze other NARCCAP model output wind speed data as time permits. My data needs include surface wind speed data from CRCM and other levels and/or models as time permits. |
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email: ringler@lanl.gov
Research Main research goals: To couple regional climate model results to a disparate set of infrastructure models (water, biosphere, power, transmission ...) in order to assess the regional impacts of anthroprogenic climate change. Research Methods: Using a suite of global climate models along with WRF, we intend to downscale coarse grained climate simulation data to spatial scales commensurate with our infrastructure models. Our initial downscaling efforts will be for the Western US. The NARCCAP data is required for comparison to our downscaling simulations. We also intend to quantify the impact of downscaling resolution (50 km vs 10 km) on our infrastructure impacts assessment. Anticipated Findings: We intend to assess both the regional impacts and uncertainty of those impacts for the Western US given plausible changes in the large-scale circulation due to increasing levels of GHG concentration. |
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email: alex.ruane@qmail.com Alex Ruane is an ORAU/NASA Postdoctoral Program Fellow working with Cynthia Rosenzweig at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA GISS) in Manhattan. Previously, he received his B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University and did his doctoral dissertation with John Roads in the Climate Sciences group at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego. Alex's dissertation work examined the atmospheric water cycle in global and regional reanalyses with a focus on high-frequency variations and comparisons to observation-based precipitation products. At NASA GISS he is downscaling multi-decadal climatologies over Central America from reanalyses and climate model scenarios, aiming to identify impacts of climate variability and change for stakeholders in the region. Similarly, the Southeastern USA and Metropolitan East Coast are other domains of interest for agriculture, energy, health, municipal applications, and water resource management. Research The Climate Impacts Group at NASA GISS is interested in NARCCAP output for several potential applications:
Of primary initial interest is the downscaled 20th Century climate scenario, followed by the A1B scenarios in the mid 21st Century. |
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email: salathe@washington.edu
Climate Impacts Group Joint Institute for the study of the Atmosphere and Oceans (JISAO) University of Washington, Seattle BIOGRAPHY
Research RESEARCH INTERESTS: The Climate Impacts Group conducts research on the regional-scale impacts of climate change on natural and human systems in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. Climate scenarios for this research are derived from global climate model simulations available from other institutions, such as for the IPCC Fourth Assessment. High-resolution data are produced using statistical downscaling and a high-resolution regional climate model. The primary applications of regional climate information are for hydrology, water resources, air quality, fish ecology, forest ecology, agriculture, and human health. Results from the NARCCAP project would be useful at many levels for our work. Simulations would be useful for basic understanding of climate change and uncertainty for the PNW. Results could also be downscaled using statistical methods or a regional climate model for direct input to other models. Regional climate modeling at University of Washington: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~salathe/reg_climate_mod/ |
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email: salzmann@ucar.edu Nadine Salzmann is currently a postdoctoral fellow at ISSE/NCAR in Boulder, CO, USA, where her work focuses on the analysis of NARCCAP runs concerning the dynamics of the seasonal snow regime of the Upper Colorado River Basin. She received her PhD degree at the University of Zurich, Switzerland, with the thesis "The use of results from Regional Climate Models for local-scale permafrost modeling in complex mountain topography – possibilities, limitations and challenges for the future". The RCM data that she was using for her PhD were mainly provided through the PRUDENCE project. In her MSc thesis she was using remote sensing techniques and GIS-modeling to assess the hazard potential of ice avalanches in the Swiss Alps. Beside her academic studies, she gained practical experience in the issues of climate change impact and natural hazards through several temporary employments e.g. with swissre (a reinsurance company in Switzerland), and internships e.g. at defense civil in Arequipa, Peru. Research One of the main goals of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is to provide high resolution climate (scenario) data for further use by the impact community. In this manner, NARCCAP will become a very valuable source of RCM data for North America. RCMs have been proven to be especially valuable over regions with heterogeneous surface such as mountain ranges. My main interest in the NARCCAP data is, thus, to analyze and evaluate the performance of the NCEP-driven NARCCAP runs in simulating cryospheric (mainly the dynamics of the snow regime) processes in high-mountain regions. Thereby, I am focusing on the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). The Colorado River is the major water resource for millions of people living in the surrounding areas. The high elevation seasonal snow pack contributes about 70% of the annual runoff. On average, about 90% of the annual streamflow is generated in the UCRB. The perfomance analyses of the NCEP-driven runs are in progress and currently based on preliminary NARCCAP results, that is on data that have not yet been archived. The evaluation includes comparison with station data sets such as SNOTEL and reanalysis data such as NARR. In a second step, I will try to assess how the seasonal snow regime may changes in future (based on NARCCAP time-slice experiments) and what the impacts are for the Colorado River's hydrology runoff and finally the consequences for the people leaving in the area. |
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email: anji.seth@uconn.edu Dr. Anji Seth is a Research Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Connecticut. Her research seeks to understand how and why climate varies, and how changes in climate are likely to evolve in the next century in particular regions. This work employs global and regional 3-D physically based numerical climate models. Dr. Seth's research explores the relative roles of local and remote (large scale) forcing on regional climates with current projects considering ancient climates of Antarctica and the future of climate in the Andean Highlands and the Northeast US.Dr. Seth earned a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, and a PhD in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Michigan. She has held positions as Graduate Fellow and Visiting Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO, and as Staff Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University. Dr. Seth also holds adjunct faculty positions at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, and Columbia University in New York City. Research Global coupled models now show coherent patterns of temperature and precipitation response to anthropogenic radiative forcing, but regional detail is lacking in low resolution climate models, and the margins between regions likely to gain and lose precipitation are especially uncertain during the warm season in North America. To advance the understanding of regional climate response to anthropogenic forcing this research will examine changes in 21st century climate across multiple scales and from the perspective of the Northeast United States. Several scale dependent mechanisms involved in warm season and cold season climate changes in the Northeast will be investigated. For example, mechanisms involved in potential summertime drying are hypothesized to have large scale components, enhanced poleward moisture transport and changes in the Atlantic sub-tropical anticyclone; a mesoscale dynamical component and changes in the low level moisture transport; and fine scale components related to variations in response between coastal and interior sub-regions. An approach is proposed which exploits medium resolution (50 km) global model time slices performed for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) in addition to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report Four (IPCC AR4) global coupled model (20th century and SRES A2) archives. The global integrations will be analysed for large scale and continental scale changes in circulation and moisture transport to the Northeast. The medium resolution integrations will provide boundary forcing for very high resolution (15 km) regional climate model experiments for the Northeast. The experiments combined with observational datasets for the recent period, constitute a multi-scale approach toward understanding the changing climate of the Northeast. |
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email: sdhyok@email.unc.edu
I am working with Dr. Lawrence E. Band at the lab of Terrestrial Hydrologic Ecosystem Modellers. Ph.D Student Research I am studying physically-reliable hydrologic and biogeochemical models, and its application for ecological processes. I am interested in NARCCAP for evaluation of water resource vulnerability in North Carolina. |
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email: dstralberg@prbo.org
Landscape Ecologist Research Main research goals: Identify potential future distributions of breeding birds in California, based on climate and land use change projections Research methods: We are using species point occurrence data, climate surfaces, and vegetation surfaces to develop statistical models of species' distributions, using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling and generalized additive models (GAMs). We have used PRISM (800-m) climate data to develop the models and generate spatial predictions for current period. We are using the delta method to calculate differences between model outputs for current and future temperature and precipitation variables, and then add the change to current PRISM surfaces to maintain current patterns of local climate variation. We then plan to predict current and future species distributions (and vegetation change) under various climate change scenarios and using different models (we currently have just one). Research plan: (1) Generate current distribution models and subject them to expert review; (2) Generate future predictions for a range of climate models and emission scenarios; (3) Overlay climate predictions with land use change projections. What data are needed: Downscaled current and future climate projections for California for a range of scenarios (including A2 or A1fi if possible) and GCMs (at least two). Min/mean/max monthly temperature and monthly precipitation are of greatest interest, but other variables such as relative humidity and cloud cover would also be very useful. Resolution should be at least 50-km grid cells, although higher resolution is preferable. Anticipated findings or significance of work: We hope to identify species and habitats of future conservation concern (based on both climate and land use change), and provide land managers with future scenarios and projections for areas under their jurisdiction. |
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email: syktus@nrm.qld.gov.au Queensland Department of Natural Resources Research Would like to have access to limited volume of data from NCAR model in order to study large scale circulation changes in Southern Hemisphere and links to Australian rainfall change and variability. |
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email: tilley@rwic.und.edu I am currently affiliated with the Regional Weather Information Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of North Dakota, and have worked with regional numerical models for nearly 20 years. My research interests are diverse and include regional climate modeling, mesoscale NWP applications, transportation weather, Arctic climate and weather diagnosis and prediction, and boundary-layer flows. I can be reached by phone at 701-777-4303. Research We plan to use the NARCCAP data to examine climate impacts on in the Northern Great Plains region with specific interest in changes in the synoptic regimes and hydrological cycle. We also want to use NARCCAP output to initialize higher resolution WRF runs, focusing on the North Dakota region, to investigate variability across different zones of land-use and terrain. |
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email: TinisS@pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca Institute of Ocean Sciences Research We're developing a storm surge forecasting ocean model for the west coast of Canada and are looking at running the model under future climate change scenarios. The idea is to use various Regional Climate model output to get an understanding of how the storm surge climatology might change in the future. We would require 6-hourly (or more frequent) temporal resolution for the surface (10 m) winds and sea-level pressure from the RCM. |
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email: sjvavrus@wisc.edu Research Scientist Research In collaboration with researchers at the University of Wisconsin and NCAR (Linda Mearns, Steve Sain, and Bo Li), we are investigating the health risks from extreme weather events (heat waves, cold waves, and floods) in Wisconsin and Chicago. This project involves analyzing meteorological conditions from global and regional climate models and how their projected changes will affect human morbidity. Our goal is to establish the relationship between extreme events and morbidity by documenting the cause-and-effect from hospital admission data in the recent past, then applying the observed correlation to project the health impact of changes in meteorological extremes under future climates. We have already analyzed simulated extreme events from global climate models, tapping the CMIP3 data archive to document cold-air outbreaks, heat waves, and flooding events. We are linking the simulated extreme events to atmospheric circulation anomalies to determine the relative dynamical contributions and the relationship between transient synoptic weather systems that trigger extreme events vs. the time-mean changes in circulation projected under greenhouse forcing. We will analyze the RCM simulations of extreme heat, cold, and precipitation events over the Upper Midwest for the present climate and projected future states. This step requires computations of daily or sub-daily temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, and sea level pressure to calculate wind-chill and heat indexes, as well as instances of heavy rainfall. We will compare the late 20th-century simulations of these quantities to those projected in the A2 scenario from the NARCCAP models. We are especially interested in the supplemental influence of humidity on heat stress, the relative changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat vs. extreme cold, changes in the return periods and magnitudes of heavy precipitation, and the circulation patterns associated with these types of severe weather. Our research should help to address these questions and to provide estimates of how future weather extremes will affect human health. |
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email: weaver.chris@epamail.epa.gov Chris Weaver is a Physical Scientist in the Global Change Research Program of the National Center for Environmental Assessment, located in the Office of Research and Development within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). He is also a Visiting Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences and Center for Environmental Prediction at Rutgers University, where he currently has two Ph.D. students. Chris' background is as a climate scientist, with a Ph.D. from Scripps Institution of Oceanography. His research has focused on the role of clouds in the climate system, including the links between large-scale atmospheric dynamics and cloud properties and evaluating the representation of clouds in climate models, and land-atmosphere interactions (primarily via regional climate modeling), including the impacts of land-use/land-cover change, mesoscale land-atmosphere interactions, and the coupling between atmospheric processes and groundwater. At the EPA, Chris is involved in assessing the potential impacts of global change on U.S. air quality, water quality, human health, and ecosystems and improving the way we use climate information (including from models) to develop these assessments and more effectively support decision making about adaptation strategies. Research Chris' interest in NARCCAP is from both a researcher's and a user's perspective. He is generally interested in regional climate modeling and dynamical downscaling. As a potential user, Chris is interested in evaluating the potential of the NARCCAP simulation output for supporting our impacts and adaptation assessment needs here in the EPA's Global Change Research Program. |
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email: jzandlo@umn.edu
Jim Zandlo, a native Minnesotan, received his Bachelor of Physics from the University of Minnesota in 1978 and his Master of Science - Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin - Madison in 1980. Jim started working at Minnesota State Climatology Office, a part of DNR Waters but physically located at the University of Minnesota St. Paul campus, in 1981 as the Assistant State Climatologist for Minnesota. Since 1986 he has been the State Climatologist. He has developed extensive computer resources for the Office including databases and extensive web-based retrieval capabilities; public users can dynamically create statistical products, maps, and graphs. He has contributed to and conducted applied climate research efforts and has created operational tools based on those results for a wide variety of topics. Jim has done work to identify non-climatic effects, as might be due to land use changes for example, in climate data. Research The Minnesota State Climatolgy Office supplies climate data to a wide variety of users. As local user demands have been extending to climate change impacts (adaptation studies) we have been asked to supply relevant information in easy to access and use formats. A 'Climate Scenario at a Place' web application was developed to sample simple historical climate observations as 'scenarios' in response to the needs of local researchers (e.g. Lucinda Johnson et.al 'Impacts on Minnesota's Aquatic Resources from Climate Change.' funded by Minnesota's LCCMR. Our office would like to explore repackaging model results including reanalysis data from NARCCAP in formats that such researchers would find convienient, possibly with some tools designed and added for specific projects. |
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